Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Possible but not probable?

“We can only work on precedent, and there was no precedent,” .
Tsuneo Futami
Former Tokyo Electric nuclear engineer
Director of Fukushima Daiichi in the late 1990s
As reported March 27, 2011

One of the problems likely encountered in the risk management and assessment of possibilities is a phenomenon called 'anchor bias'.  The essence of anchor bias is be influenced by an initial condition, fact, or assessment, and then be inhibited from making radical adjustments, even in the face of counter information. 


Once they made the proclamation that this was the maximum earthquake, they had a hard time re-evaluating that as new data came in.
Greg S. Hardy,
Structural engineer
Specialist in nuclear plant design and seismic risk
As reported March 27, 2011

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