Monday, October 14, 2024
Quantitative Methods: It takes a number!
- Useful for day-to-day project management
- 'Real numbers' are what you count with, measure with, budget with, and schedule with.You can do all manner of arithmetic with them, just as you learned in elementary school.
- Real numbers are continuous, meaning every number in between is also a real number
- Real numbers can be plotted on a line, and there is no limit to how long the line can extend, so a real number can be a decimal of infinite length
- Real numbers are both rational (a ratio of two numbers) or irrational (like 'pi', not a ratio of two numbers)
Random numbers
- Essential for risk management subject to random effects
- Not a number exactly, but a number probably
- Random numbers underlie all of probability and statistics, and thus are key to risk management
- Random numbers are not a point on a line -- like 2.0 -- but rather a range on a line like 'from 1.7 to 2.3'
- The 'distribution' of the random number describes the probability that the actual value is more likely 1.7 than 1.9, etc
- Mathematically,
distributions are expressed in functional form, as for example the
value of Y is a consequence of the value of X.
- Arithmetic can not be done with random numbers per se, but arithmetic can be done on the functions that represent random numbers. This is very complex business, and is usually best done by simulation rather than an a direct calculus on the distributions.
- Monte Carlo tools have made random numbers practical in project management risk evaluations.
Rational numbers:
- A number that is a ratio of two numbers
- In project management, ratios are tricky: both the numerator and the denominator can move about, but if you are looking only at the ratio, like a percentage, you may not have visibility into what is actually moving.
- A number that is not a ratio, and thus is likely to have an infinite number of digits, like 'pi'
- Mostly these show up in science and engineering, and so less likely in the project office
- Many 'constants' in mathematics are irrational .... they just are what they are
- A number that expresses position, like 1st or 2nd
- You can not do arithmetic with ordinal numbers: No one would try to add 1st and 2nd place to get 3rd place
- Ordinal numbers show up in risk management a lot. Instead of 'red' 'yellow' 'green' designations or ranks for risk ranking, often a ordinal rank like 1, 5, 10 are used to rank risks. BUT, such are really labels, where 1 = green etc. You can not do arithmetic on 1,5,10 labels no more than you can add red + green. At best 1, 5, 10 are ordinal; they are not continuous like real numbers, so arithmetic is disallowed.
- Cardinality refers to the number of units in a container. If a set, or box, or a team contains 10 units, it is said it's cardinality is 10.
- Cardinal numbers are the integers (whole numbers) used to express cardinality
- In project management, you could think of a team with a cardinality of 5, meaning 5 full-time equivalents (whole number equivalent of members)
- All real numbers have an exponent. If the exponent is '0', then the value is '1'. Example: 3exp0 = 1
- An exponent tells us how many times a number is multiplied by itself: 2exp3 means: 2x2x2 (*)
- In the project office, exponential growth is often encountered. Famously, the number of communication paths between N communicators (team members) is approximately Nexp2. Thus, as you add team members, you add communications exponentially such that some say: "adding team members actually detracts from productivity and throughput!"
- Got a graphics project? You may have vector graphics in your project solution
- Vectors are numbers with more than one constituent; in effect a vector is a set of numbers or parameters
- Example: [20mph, North] is a two-dimensional vector describing magnitude (speed) and direction
- In vector graphics, the 'vector' has the starting point and the ending point of an image component, like a line, curve, box, color, or even text. There are no pixels ... so the image can scale (enlarge) without the blurriness of pixels.
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Thursday, October 10, 2024
Bayes Thinking Part II
In Part I of this series, we developed the idea that Thomas Bayes was a rebel in his time, looking at probability problems in a different light, specifically from the proposition of dependencies between probabilistic events.
In Part I we posed the project situation of 'A' and 'B', where 'A' is a probabilistic event--in our example 'A' is the weather--and 'B' is another probabilistic event, the results of tests. We hypothesized that 'B' had a dependency on 'A', but not the other way 'round.
Bayes' Grid
The Figure below is a Bayes' Grid for this situation. 'A+' is good weather, and 'B+' is a good test result. 'A' is independent of 'B', but 'B' has dependencies on 'A'. The notation, 'B+ | A' means a good test result given any conditions of the weather, whereas 'B+ | A+' [shown in another figure] means a good test result given the condition of good weather. 'B+ and A+' means a good test result when at the same time the weather is good. Note the former is a dependency and the latter is a intersection of two conditions; they are not the same.
There are a few basic math rules that govern Bayes' Grid.
- The dark blue space [4 cells] is every condition of 'A' and 'B', so the numbers in this 'space' must sum 1.0, representing the total 'A' and 'B' union
- The light blue row just under the 'A' is every condition of 'A', so this row must sum to 1.0
- The light blue column just adjacent to 'B' is every condition of 'B' so this column must sum to 1.0
- The dark blue columns or rows must sum to their light blue counter parts
Empirical Data
In spite of the intersections of A and B shown on the grid, it's very rare for the project to observe them. More commonly, observations are made of conditional results. Suppose we observe that given good weather, 90% of the test results are good. This is a conditional statement of the form P(B+ | A+) which is read: "probability of B+ given the condition of A+". Now, the situation of 'B+ | A+' per se is not shown on the grid. What is shown is 'B+ and A+'. However, our friend Bayes gave us this equation:
P(B+ | A+) * P(A+) = P (B+ and A+) = 0.9 * 0.6 = 0.54
Take note: B+ is not 90%; in fact, we don't know yet what B+ is. However, we know the value of 'B+ and A+' is 0.54 because of Bayes' equation given above.
Now, since the grid has to add in every direction, we also know that the second number in the A+ column is 0.06, P(B- and A+).
However, we can go no farther until we obtain another independent emprical observation.
To be continued
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Monday, October 7, 2024
Bayes thinking, Part I
Our friend Bayes, Thomas Bayes, late of the 18th century, an Englishman, was a mathematician and a pastor who's curiosity led him to ponder the nature of random events.
There was already a body of knowledge about probabilities by his time, so curious Bayes went at probability in a different way. Until Bayes came along, probability was a matter of frequency:
"How many times did an event happen/how many times could an event happen". In other words, "actual/opportunity".
To apply this definition in practice, certain, or "calibrated", information is needed about the opportunity, and of course actual outcomes are needed, often several trials of actual outcomes.
Bayes' Insight
Recognizing the practicalities of obtaining the requisite information, brother Bayes decided, more or less, to look backward from actual observations to ascertain and understand conditions that influenced the actual outcomes, and might influence future outcomes.
So Bayes developed his own definition of probability that is not frequency and trials oriented, but it does require an actual observation. Bayes’ definition of probability, somewhat paraphrased, is that probability is...
The ratio of expected value before an event happens to the actual observed value at the time the event happens.
This way of looking at probability is really a bet on an outcome based on [mostly subjective] evaluations of circumstances that might lead to that outcome. It's a ratio of values, rather than a frequency ratio.
Bayes' Theorem
He developed a widely known explanation of his ideas [first published after his death] that have become known as Bayes' Theorem. Used quantitatively [rather qualitatively as Bayes himself reasoned], Bayesian reasoning begins with an observation, hypothesis, or "guess" and works backward through a set of mathematical functions to arrive at the underlying probabilities.
To use his theorem, information about two probabilistic events is needed:
One event, call it 'A', must be independent of outcomes, but otherwise has some influence over outcomes. For example, 'A' could be the weather. The weather seems to go its own way most of the time. Specifically 'good weather' is the event 'A+', and 'bad weather' is the event 'A-'.
The second event, call it 'B', is hypothesized to have some dependency on 'A'. [This is Bayes' 'bet' on the future value] For example, project test results in some cases could be weather dependent. Specifically, 'B+' is the event 'good test result' and 'B-' is a bad test result; test results could depend on the weather, but not the other way 'round.
Project Questions
Now situation we have described raises some interesting questions:
- What is the likelihood of B+, given A+?
- What are the prospects for B+ if A+ doesn't happen?
- Is there a way to estimate the likelihood of B+ or B- given any condition of A?
- Can we validate that B indeed depends on A?
Bayes' Grid
Curious Bayes [or those who came after him] realized that a "Bayes' Grid", a 2x2 matrix, could help sort out functional relationships between the 'A' space and the 'B' space. Bayes' Grid is a device that simplifies the reasoning, provides a visualization of the relationships, and avoids dealing directly with equations of probabilities.
Since there's a lot detail behind Bayes' Grid, we'll take up those details in Part II of this series.
Photo credit: Wikipedia
Wednesday, September 25, 2024
The SpaceX approach
In the September 2-15, 2024 edition of Aviation Week and Space Technology there is an article about the 5-step process at SpaceX for getting the most effective project outcome. In a few words summarized here, the steps are:
- Challenge the Requirements. Interpret this as: your requirements are dumb; find a way to make them less dumb!
- Find a way to eliminate a process step of poor value, or a part or component that can be simplified
- Find a way to make it easier, faster, cheaper to reproduce or manufacture
- Prioritize speed and responsiveness in everything you do or will have done.
- Automate everything! Take people out of the manufacturing and production process whereover possible.
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Saturday, September 21, 2024
Einstein's methodology
"When I have one week to solve a seemingly impossible problem, I spend six days defining it, and then the solution becomes obvious."Albert Einstein
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Wednesday, September 18, 2024
The ideal number of project workers is ....
One theory of project staffing is that the ideal number of project people is ZERO.
The ideal number of employees in any company is zero. If a company could run and make money using no people, then that is exactly what it should do.
Nobody owes anybody a job. Literally the only reason anyone has one is because there was a problem at some point in that business that required a human to do some part of the work. Building on that, if that ever becomes not the case, for a particular person or team or department of human employees, the natural next action is to get rid of them.
and just now —starting in 2023 and 2024, it is actually becoming possible to replace human intelligence tasks with technology.
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Sunday, September 15, 2024
A.I. Risk Repository
MIT may have done us a favor by putting together a compendium of risks associated with A.I. systems.
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Tuesday, September 10, 2024
Slow is smooth; Smooth is fast
The blog title is actually from the mantra of the U.S. Navy SEALS
Slow is smooth; smooth is fast.U.S. Navy SEALS
Now, this bit of wisdom may strike you as similar to the project tips we've been working with for years, to wit: "quality is free", and "it's cheaper and faster to do it right the first time" which recognizes the cost and schedule penalty of rework.
It's about rhythm and balance
From the SEALS website, we learn: "This phrase isn't just about being slow or fast; it's about finding a rhythm that balances precision and pace, ultimately leading to swifter progress. The SEALs swear by it... but how can we apply it beyond military contexts?
More depth:
Of course, there's a YouTube on "Smooth and Fast"
On the website, link given in the first sentence, there is a long-form article on the concept. Two chapters stand out:
Applying "Slow is Smooth, Smooth is Fast" Beyond Military Contexts
Incorporating the Mantra into Business Practices
Using the Mantra for Project Management
The Role of "Slow is Smooth, Smooth is Fast" in Team Dynamics
Promoting Smoothness in Team Operations
The Mantra's Impact on Team Efficiency
In the PM domain, the recommendations are:
- Be deliberate; take the time to consider and prepare
- Quality trumps speed (the cost of rework is embedded in this one)
- Keep refining (Sort of a Bayesian idea, not so much continuous improvement)
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Friday, September 6, 2024
Stability! It counts for a lot
Stability!
- Timing is everything! Getting the feedback "phased" in time such that it has a correcting effect rather than a destructive effect is vital. The former is generally called "negative feedback" for its corrective nature; the latter is generally called "positive feedback" for its reinforcing rather than corrective nature. And, when its too late, it's generally called ineffective.
- Amplitude, or strength, or quantity is next: It has to be enough, but not too much. Tricky that! Experimentation and experience are about the only way to handle this one.
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Monday, September 2, 2024
The least Maximum schedule
- Subordinate all other priorities to the most important tasks. This begs the question: is there an objective measure of importance, and from whom or what does such a measure emanate?
- If you can measure 'importance' (see above) then do the densest tasks first, as measured by the ratio of importance to time.
Note: a short time (denominator) will "densify" a task, so some judgement is required so that a whole bunch of short tasks don't overwhelm the larger picture. In the large picture, you would hope that the density is driven by the numerator (importance) - Always do an 'earliest start', putting all the slack at the end. You may not need it, but if you do it will be there.
- Move constraints around to optimize the opportunity for an earliest start that leads to least maximum. See my posting on this strategy.
- If a new task drops into the middle of your schedule unannounced, prioritize according to 'density' (See above). This may mean dropping what you are doing and picking up the new task. Some judgement required, of course. It's not just a bot following an algorithm here.
- If some of your schedule drivers have some random components, and you have to estimate the next event with no information other than history, then "LaPlace's Law of Succession" may be helpful, to wit:
- To the prior random (independent) outcomes (probability) observed, add "1" to the numerator and "2" to the denominator to predict the probability of the next event. (*)
So, by example, if your history is that you observed, measured, or obtained a particular outcome independently 3 of 4 times (3/4), LaPlace's Law would predict (3+1)/(4+2) as the probability for the next similar outcome, or 4/6. This figure is a bit more pessimistic, as you would expect by giving extra weight to the number of trials (denominator).
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Tuesday, August 27, 2024
Never a dull moment ..;.
For some, boredom is the great fear. Got to keep moving!
"He had a function, an excuse for activity. For a few hours at least he wouldn’t be bored. ... he drank the coffee, which was still too hot. He reflected that the fear of boredom had driven him the whole of his life."Ann Cleeves, Novelist
The fear or boredom was a driver ...
Frankly, I know how he feels
Add value
It shouldn't be motion for motion's sake
It should be about the utility of what you are doing
I need an activity plan for every day ... how will this day add value to what I am about?
About utility
Utility is the marginal difference between face value and the value you -- or someone else -- puts on what your are doing or offering.
If you think about it, almost anyone can offer up face value if they have the skills for that domain, but if you are in constant motion -- avoiding boredom -- then that activity should be directed at more than just face value.
Even if it's just reading a book, the question is: how much better off are you for having engaged in that activity? For me, I read a lot of history because I think there are lessons there to be applied forward that will add value to my endeavors. And, of course, I might avoid a risk I might not otherwise understand.
If you are driven to activity ...
Make it count for something.
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Friday, August 23, 2024
Leonardo's Lament
And then there's this:
But Edwin Armstrong, largely credited with the invention of FM as we know it today, disagreed strongly, citing all manner of empirical and practical experimentation and test operations, to say nothing of calculation errors and erroneous assumptions shown to be in the 'theory' of the FCC's expert.
But, to no avail; the FCC backed its expert.
Ten years later, after myriad sunspot eruptions, there was this exchange:
Armstrong: "You were wrong?!"
FCC Expert: "Oh certainly. I think that can happen frequently to people who make predictions on the basis of partial information. It happens every day"
++++++++++
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Monday, August 19, 2024
Out of Sight Activity
Back in yesteryear, I recall the first time I had a management job big enough that my team was too large for line-of-sight from my desk and location.
- Activity becomes not too important. Where and when they worked could be delegated locally
- Methods are still somewhat important because Quality (in the large sense) is buried in Methods. So, can't let methods be delegated willy nilly
- Outcomes now become the biggie: are we getting results according to expectations?
- I had 800 on my team
- 400 of them were in overseas locations
- 400 of them were in multiple US locations
- I had multiple offices
- It all worked out: we made money!
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Friday, August 2, 2024
Do LLMs reason or think?
In a posting on "Eight to Late", the question is posed: Do large language models think, or are they just a communications tool?
Based, as they are, on a representative corpus of human language, LLMs mimic how humans communicate their thinking, not how humans think. Yes, they can do useful things, even amazing things, but my guess is that these will turn out to have explanations other than intelligence and / or reasoning. For example, in this paper, Ben Prystawksi and his colleagues conclude that “we can expect Chain of Thought reasoning to help when a model is tasked with making inferences that span different topics or concepts that do not co-occur often in its training data, but can be connected through topics or concepts that do.” This is very different from human reasoning which is a) embodied, and thus uses data that is tightly coupled – i.e., relevant to the problem at hand and b) uses the power of abstraction (e.g. theoretical models).
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Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Data rule #1
- Don't ask for data if you don't know what you are going to do with it
- Don't ask for data which you can not use or act upon
But, alas, in the PMO there are too many incidents of reports, data accumulation, measurements, etc which are PMO doctrine, but in reality, there actually is no plan for what to do with it. Sometimes, it's just curiosity; sometimes it's just blind compliance with a data regulation; sometimes it's just to have a justification for an analyst job.
- What are you going to do with the data?
- How does the data add value to what is to be done
- Is the data quality consistent with the intended use or application (**), and
- Is there a plan to effectuate that value-add (in other words, can you put the data into action)?
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Saturday, July 27, 2024
Is it alright to guess in statistics?
Is guessing in statistics like crying in baseball? It's something "big people" don't do.
- If it's a green field -- no experience, no history -- then guess 50/50, 1 chance in 2, a flip of the coin
- Else: use your experience and history to guess other than 1 chance in 2
- There is "X" and there is "Y", but "X" in the presence of "Y" may influence outcomes differently.
- In order to get started, one has to make an initial guesses in the form of a hypothesis about not only the probabilistic performance of "X" and "Y", but also about the the influence of "Y" on "X"
- Then the hypothesis is tested by observing outcomes, all according to the parameters one guessed, and
- Finally, follow-up with adjustments until the probabilities better fit the observed variations.
- To get off the dime, make an assumption, and test it against observations
- Adjust, correct, and move on!
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Tuesday, July 23, 2024
Enterprise-quality browser for the PMO
The trusty internet browser that has been around since the Netscape days of the 1990's has largely been a lay person's user interface to the internet and sundry consumer internet apps accessed via the browser.
- The need for an easier and less complicated way to integrate business apps into the browser.
- More of a "windows" (small 'w') look with multiple app windows in a common display, decidedly different from a row (or column) of tabs.
- Security protections that are more demanding in the enterprise setting.
- Network, IT, and data protection functions built-in
_________
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Friday, July 19, 2024
Clearing the backlog
Yikes! My backlog is blocked! How can this be? We're agile... or maybe we've become de-agiled. Can that happen?
Ah yes, we're agile, but perhaps not everything in the portfolio is agile; indeed, perhaps not everything in the project is agile.
In the event, coupling is the culprit.
Coupling?
- Loose coupling: there is some effect transference, but not a lot. Think of double-pane windows decoupling the exterior environment from the interior
- Tight coupling: there is almost complete transference of one effect onto another. Think of how a cyclist puts (couples) energy into moving the chain; almost no energy is lost flexing the frame.
If coupling is a problem, how to solve it?
Second, there are coupling objects
- To avoid coupling, buffers may not do the trick.
- But to enable coupling, we need some connectivity
With loose coupling, we get the window pane effect: stuff can go on in "Environment A" without strongly influencing "Environment B".
The case for tight coupling
There are two approaches:
- Invent a temporary object to be a surrogate or stand-in for the partner project/process/object. In other words, we 'stub out' the effect into a temporary effect absorber.
- Invent a service object (like a window pane) to provide the 'services' to get from one environment to another.
With all this, you might see the advantages of an architect on the agile team!
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Monday, July 15, 2024
Government Research you can access
Since at least 2013, there's been a push from the President's Office of Science and Technology Policy to make as much as possible of government sponsored research available to the public for free.
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Friday, July 12, 2024
Software: Is it ever Done?
The software is never done!
- Buy it; keep it; sell it, eventually. Never needs an upgrade!
- But, is this only a warranty service?
- How long would manufactures support software upgrades for 2nd or 3rd party apps?
- The life of car is 12 years+ for new vehicles. That's 'forever and forever' in the software industry, comparable to still supporting the iPhone 4!
- The one that pays the bills (automobile manufacturer) or
- The customer that buys the car?
- I wonder if you'll be able to go to your local auto parts retailer and buy an upgrade-on-a-stick for legacy vehicles?
- I wonder if there is not a whole industry to be invented supporting older cars with updated interfaces?
- I wonder if its practical to expect the after-market developer to maintain currency for 'a long time'.
- I wonder if personal security, data security (nav data, for instance, but also other data about downloads to the car like music stations and podcasts, etc), and all the rest will not spawn a whole set of requirements, support issues, and a supporting industry?
And, neither is the car!
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Tuesday, July 9, 2024
Is your enterprise Agile?
Applying agile methodology in your software project? Good!
- Access to resources is the main reason. You may have heard that agile is all about small self-directing teams -- yes, that's part of the doctrine.
- But how many teams are needed for your project? Dozens? Hundreds even? Where do those people, tools, training, facilities, communications, etc. come from? And who pays for all that?
- Answer: the Enterprise.
Who are these people? If an enterprise, then there are going to be a wide variety: Customers (profit), or taxpayers (if you're a government enterprise), or donors (if you're a charity, church, etc), or owners (if privately held), or investors (if you're a publicly traded company)
- Vision: What is envisioned as the benefit to the enterprise? Who are envisioned as the beneficiaries?
- Scope: What is it you're going to do (and what are the ancillary or consequential impacts elsewhere in the enterprise that you don't consider part of your scope?)
- Schedule: when can you likely produce results (no single point estimates, of course. It takes a range!)
- Resources: how much, and when (cash flow, and resource allocations)
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Friday, July 5, 2024
Activities, Results, Methdology
Back in yesteryear, I recall the first time I had a management job big enough that my team was too large for line-of-sight from my desk and location.
- Activity becomes not too important. Where and when they worked could be delegated locally
- Methods are still somewhat important because Quality (in the large sense) is buried in Methods. So, can't let methods be delegated willy nilly
- Outcomes now become the biggie: are we getting results according to expectations?
- I had 800 on my team
- 400 of them were in overseas locations
- 400 of them were in multiple US locations
- I had multiple offices
- It all worked out: we made money!
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Monday, July 1, 2024
"Against the Gods"... a risk perspective
If you are in the project management (read: risk management) business, one of the best books that describes the philosophy and foundation for modern risk management is Peter L. Bernstein's "Against the Gods: the remarkable story of risk".
Between the covers of this "must read" we learn this bit:
The essence of risk management lies in maximizing the areas where we have some control over the outcome while minimizing the areas where we have absolutely no control over the outcome and the linkage between effect and cause is hidden from us.
Knowledge and control
Picking apart Bernstein's "essence" separates matters into control and knowledge:
- We know about it, and can fashion controls for it
- We know about it, and we can't do much about it, even if we understand cause and effect
- We know about it, but we don't understand the elements of cause and effect, and so we're pretty much at a loss.
- We don't know about it, or we don't know enough about it, and more knowledge would help.
" ....... because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know."No luck
So there is an ah-hah moment here: if all things have a cause and effect, even if they are hidden, there is no such thing as luck. (Newtonian physics to the rescue once again)
Thus, as a risk management regimen, we don't have to be concerned with managing luck! That's probably a good thing (Ooops, as luck may have it, if our project is about the subatomic level, then the randomness of quantum physics is in charge. Thus: luck?)
Indeed, our good friend Laplace, a French mathematician of some renown, said this:
Present events are connected with preceding ones by a tie based upon the evident principle that a thing cannot occur without a cause that produces it. . . .Bernstein or Bayes' (with help from ChatGPT)
All events, even those which on account of their insignificance do not seem to follow the great laws of nature, are a result of it just as necessarily as the revolutions of the sun.
Following up on the idea of the knowledge-control linkage to risk management, Bayes' Theorem comes to mind. Bayes' is all about forming a hypothesis, testing it with real observations, and using those outcomes to refine the hypothesis, eventually arriving at a probabilistic description of the risk.
Bayes' theorem is a manner of reasoning about random and unknown effects and a mathematical formula that allows us to update our beliefs about the probability of an event occurring based on new evidence. It is a powerful tool for making predictions and decisions based on incomplete information, and it has applications in fields ranging from medicine to finance to engineering.
Bernstein's discussion of Bayes' theorem in "Against the Gods" is particularly interesting because he highlights the fact that Bayesian reasoning is often at odds with our intuition. Humans have a tendency to overestimate the likelihood of rare events and underestimate the probability of more common events. Bayes' theorem provides a framework for overcoming these biases and making more accurate predictions.
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Thursday, June 27, 2024
RaaS .. It's about results
It's been around a few years, but RaaS ... Results as a Service ... is getting more play in projects. RaaS is a play on the more familiar and older SaaS, Software as a Service. So the difference is, among other things, that RaaS is end-item focused; tools and processes are in the black box; and the customer is buying a result they can use.
- FFP has been around since the beginning of time it seems.
- The customer contracts for an outcome, a result, and end-item, at a fixed price.
- The customer does not weigh in on process, methods, and tools
- The customer does not weigh in on staffing or schedule details. Major milestones, perhaps only one milestone at the end are all that count.
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Tuesday, June 25, 2024
The ideal number of workers
Wow! Is this true?
The ideal number of human workers in any business is zero. The purpose of companies is to make as much money as possible with the lowest possible expenses. So AI and other types of automation are not disruptions to a human-based Capitalism—instead, they’re revealing that today’s Capitalism is not fundamentally human in the first place. Daniel Miessler
"... in ANY business ... "? Emphasis added by me.
I have no idea how you could do projects with such a situation. So, I'm hopeful Miessler's idea is not an end-game for the PMO.
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Saturday, June 22, 2024
Best-and-Final-Offer Strategices
You're in a competitive bidding situation for a new project contract.
- You can't cooperate with your competition, so you are adversaries
- You and your competitor both view the situation as zero-sum; there's not a win-win compromise solution
- Everyone has about the same tools to manipulate (Cost, Schedule, Scope)
- You may have some intelligence regarding customer's expectation of what is a winning BAFO strategy re cost, schedule, and scope.
- You may have some intelligence about the bidding history at BAFO of your competitors.
- Everyone has the same timeframe-- there is only one due date for the BAFO.
- The game is fundamentally unstable: You're seeking maximum optimization, not some sub-optimum stability point with your competitor (assuming the customer is only going to make one winning award, which is not always the case)
- Do read carefully the invitation to submit a BAFO. The bias of the customer may well be exposed in the wording of the invitation.
- Don't bait and switch at BAFO key personnel, labor mix, or technical approach unless you can point to specifics from the customer's feedback to you that suggests that such cuts would be welcomed.
- Do offer a bottom line discount to price if you're bidding fixed price, but
- Don't jiggle labor rates, labor mix, and labor participation unless you can point to customer comments that justify such. You should anticipate there will be change orders and you will not want rates, mix, and participation to be compromised for the future opportunity.
- Do wiggle the schedule if there are productivity improvements you can point to down the line
- Do rearchitect the schedule to remove constraints and improve probability of success on the critical path. Justify this with analysis you've done since the initial submission.
- Do take advantage of any independent R&D that will feed into the project.
- Don't do anything unilaterally that will damage your credibility in the eyes of the customer. Unsupported changes are often viewed as unworthy business practices and new risk.
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Wednesday, June 19, 2024
NSA on deep fake detection of video conferencing
As I previously posted, there is a growing threat that the person to whom you are video conferencing is really a deep fake. For projects, this threat arises in recruiting strangers remotely by video call, but also in other situations when the 'familiar face' is really fake. (But I know that person! How could the image I'm seeing be fake?)
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Sunday, June 16, 2024
Classified projects ... claiming credit
Most of my career has been working in the black and grey world of classified projects.
It is the nature of classified projects that "successes are unheralded and .... failures are trumpeted"JFK
So, if you have an idea of putting your successes on your resume, looking for your next job, gig, or career move, beware!
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Thursday, June 13, 2024
Collaboration ... virtually
" ....virtual collaboration is like evaporated milk with 60% of the water removed; safer; mostly up to the job, but a sterile version of face-to-face that leaves an unsatisfying aftertaste""Bartelby" columnist in the "Economist"
Our columnist goes on:
"There are downsides to being a clinically efficient worker. They include relinquishing the daily banter and complicity among colleagues..... Hyper efficiency and distance mean less opportunity for interpersonal tension but also less gratuitous job, which is hard to replicate on Zoom."
But then, on a business channel, I hear a start-up guy talking about developing a software application (alternative to Zoom, or Skype, or Webex) that has 'humanity built-in'
"Humanity built in"! Perhaps, but let's wait and see ....
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Monday, June 10, 2024
U.S. Gov Cloud Security... An architecture
Have you got a project providing software services to the civil agencies of the U.S. Government?
This technical reference architecture is intended to provide guidance to agencies adopting cloud services in the following ways:• Cloud Deployment: provides guidance for agencies to securely transition to, deploy, integrate, maintain, and operate cloud services.
This technical reference architecture is divided into three major sections:
• Adaptable Solutions: provides a flexible and broadly applicable architecture that identifies cloud capabilities and vendor agnostic solutions.
• Secure Architectures: supports the establishment of cloud environments and secure infrastructures, platforms, and services for agency operations.
• Development, Security, and Operations (DevSecOps): supports a secure and dynamic development and engineering cycle that prioritizes the design, development, and delivery of capabilities by building, learning, and iterating solutions as agencies transition and evolve.
• Zero Trust: supports agencies as they plan to adopt zero trust architectures.• Shared Services: This section covers standardized baselines to evaluate the security of cloud services.
• Cloud Migration: This section outlines the strategies and considerations of cloud migration, including explanations of common migration scenarios.
• Cloud Security Posture Management: This section defines Cloud Security Posture Management (CSPM) and enumerates related security tools for monitoring, development, integration, risk assessment, and incident response in cloud environments.
CISA is the operational lead for federal civilian cybersecurity and executes the broader mission to understand and reduce cybersecurity risk of the nation
The United States Digital Service (USDS) is a senior team of technologists and engineers that support the mission of departments and agencies through technology and design.
Federal Risk and Authorization Management Program provides a cost-effective, risk-based approach for the adoption and use of
cloud services by the Federal Government.
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Friday, June 7, 2024
Resourcing the critical path
In project management school, the lesson on Critical Path includes this rule:
Apply resources first to the critical path, and subordinate demands of other paths to ensure the critical path is never starved.
Considering Mary and John uniquely
Here's an idea:
Now the schedule plan is shorter, though not as short as it could be if there were resources other than Mary and John.
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Tuesday, June 4, 2024
Agile "DONE" defined
Now we're getting somewhere! No less an Agile/Scrum eminence than Mike Cohn -- author of some really good books and articles -- has come out with a newsletter on -- are you ready for this? -- what's the meaning of DONE in Agile.
His acronym, a bit a poor choice to my mind, is "DoD"... Definition of Done. But, there you have it... perhaps a new GAAP "generally accepted agile practice" for agile-done
In the past, my definition of "Done" has been framed by the answers to these three questions:
- Is it done when the money or schedule runs out?
- Is it done when the sponsor or product manager says it's done?
- Is it done when Best Value* has been delivered?
* The most ,and the most affordable, scope within the constraints of time and money
Cohn instructs us differently:
A typical definition of done would be something similar to:
- The code is well written. (That is, we’re happy with it and don’t feel like it immediately needs to be rewritten.)
- The code is checked in. (Kind of an “of course” statement, but still worth calling out.)
- The code was either pair programmed or peer reviewed.
- The code comes with tests at all appropriate levels. (That is, unit, service and user interface.)
- The feature the code implements has been documented in any end-user documentation such as manuals or help systems.
I am most definitely not saying they code something in a first sprint and test it in a second sprint. “Done” still means tested, but it may mean tested to different—but appropriate—levels.
Now, I find this quite practical.. Indeed, most of Cohn's stuff is very practical and reflects the way projects really work. But it's very tactical. There's more to a product than just the code. In other words his theory is proven when, in the crucible of a trying to make money or fulfill a mission by writing software, you are strategically successful (deployable, saleable, supportable product) while being simultaneously tactically successful. How swell for us who read Cohn!
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Friday, May 31, 2024
Project Toys
I generally do not endorse products on this blog, and this posting is not an endorsement per se, but more of a "heads up" because in the PMO there are always a lot of documents and things to write, many to a multi-lingual project team. Here is a tool that might be of use.
Functionality: With Advanced Paste, you can select the desired text format for pasting, but it goes beyond simple copy-paste. Here’s what you can do:
- Summarize Text: Request a summary of the text.
- Translate: Translate text into another language.
- Code Generation: Generate code based on data from the clipboard.
- Rewrite Text: Modify text in a different style or structure using natural language.
AI-Powered: To enhance these capabilities, the app communicates with OpenAI servers. However, this requires paid access to the OpenAI API.
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