Saturday, September 18, 2010

Future choice decisions

Robin M. Hogarth says this about future choice decisions:
"Future choice decisions are decisions that have three important sources of complexity:
  • First, actions taken today can have unknown consequences at future horizons that are difficult to specify.
  • Second, decisions imply complex inter-temporal tradeoffs.
  • And, third, it is problematic to specify relevant states of the world, let alone assess thier probabilities

As written in "Subways, coconuts, and foggy minefields; an approach to studying future-choice decisions", an essay in the "The Irrational Economist", Public Affairs, New York, 2010

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