US Defense Secretary
Decisions in the face of uncertainty deal with these questions (the big Three)
- Are all the facts and estimates in the frame?
- Is the information understood for its function, features, and performance?
- Are the consequences known and understood?
Facts come from history; estimates are about the future (there are no facts about the future, after all)
Consequences is another word for exposure. Is the risk exposure understood? Perhaps it is if you internalize these ideas:
6. Risk attitudes--and thus risk estimates--are temporally biased: the future is more optimistic than the present for the same challenge.
Sponsors, with their longer business timeframe, are more optimistic than the project manager; thus, sponsors understate risk. But the corollary is that PMs tend to overstate the risk. Thus, there is a constant tension. Project managers are the ultimate manager of this tension!