Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Probabilistic Risk Analysis at NASA

I came across this statement recently while going through NASA's guide on probabilistic risk assessment. I was really stunned to learn that until 15 years ago there was no formal acceptance of probabilistic risk analysis at NASA, but then I guess I'm just not a NASA guy:

But, NASA having done a bit of a mea culpa in the guide, the guide goes on to give a nice process diagram for the standard triplet:

1. What can go wrong?

2. How often does it happen, and

3. What are the consequences

Actually, although lengthy, the guide is pretty easy to read; we should all take comfort that it is the result of lessons learned. Failure is a much better teacher than success!

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