Saturday, November 18, 2023

Making a prediction?

Making a prediction?
Something to forecast?

Milton Friedman (deceased now), distinguished economist and notably conservative when it came to finances has this advice

If you're going to predict, then predict often!

Yes, it's a bit humorous. But it's also true, to wit: the future is uncertain, subject to change, and subject to change unexpectedly and perhaps even near-term. So, Friedman might have said:

  • Sampling theory tells us to same at least twice as fast as the changing situation we're engaged with.
  • If we can't reasonably estimate whether change is linear or exponential, then "sample early; sample often"
  • Long-term predictions are of low value (See: sampling theory, above)

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