Sunday, May 28, 2023

A creativity explosion?

There are endless headlines and debates about the downside of the A.I. revolution that is (likely) coming, some of which is upon us. Since most project people are knowledge workers or skilled trades workers, the seeming threat of A.I. job replacement is always just hanging a bit off stage-left.

But along comes an essay by Daniel Miessler which posits, in part, that we may be on a cusp of a creativity explosion which by its very nature is going to find its way into projects of all types.

Here's what Miessler has to say [lightly edited], writing in the '1st person':

What’s about to happen to knowledge workers [may be going] to be bleak. And it’s [probably] going to happen so quickly. [..........] in the last several weeks I’ve had a new thought that is blowing me away.

Let me ask you this: what percentage of people are producing creative ideas that are being seen by others and that are good enough to earn them a living? Like, on the planet.

1%? .5%? .01% I don’t know the number, but it’s extraordinarily small. We’ve got 8 billion people now. How many startups are there? How much music is there? How many Hollywoods are there? How many Taylor Swifts? How many Kendrick Lamars? How many Elons? How many Satya Nadellas?

Too few. And here’s the important question. Why? Why so few?
Part of the answer is that talent matters, and intelligence matters, and creativity matters. Sure. Agreed. But how many people have similar capabilities to these people but don’t have the time or the tools to do anything with them?

Again, I don’t know the answer to that, but I’m betting it’s vast. Not hundreds of people. Not thousands. Millions.

But they can’t go to a studio. They can’t talk to their producer friends and get a break. They don’t have an art table to work on. They don’t have a beat machine.

AI is about to change that. We’re about to remove many of the advantages that Steven Spielberg has over Takashi Noshimira, who lives in a small rural town in Japan, who is a creative genius. With these new models coming out, with the ability to create music, create video, create screenplays, create scripts, etc—we’re about to equalize the playing field massively.

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