Thursday, August 12, 2021

Let it be mensurable!


To be mensurable is to be 
  • Measurable
  • Calculable
  • Estimable
  • Determinable
And, why do we care?
Enter: risk management

To compare two dissimilar risks violates the rule that risks to be compared must be similarly mensurable.

In a recent post, Matthew Squair, writing at 'critical uncertainties' makes the point that early on ....
(and I quote Squair)

".... lockdown sceptics were pointing out that your risk of drowning in a pool, in California, was much higher than that of dying from Covid 19 so why to worry? if you feel this is intuitively wrong, in fact wronger than wrong, you're right.

One of these risks is based on an independent probability. That is if I drown in a pool it's not going to have an affect on the probability of my neighbour drowning. But, on the other hand if I have Covid 19 you'll find the probability of my neighbour having Covid 19 is dependent on that; that is, the probabilities are dependent.

In one we truck along with a base rate of events unaffected by each other, in the other the events can affect each other and the risk can suddenly blow up.

To be very clear the two risks are immensurable and not directly comparable."

He goes to point out that many such immensurable comparisons are being made in the Covid space, such as the risk of getting Covid itself compared, incorrectly, to the risk of blood clot from a vaccine, etc.



Buy them at any online book retailer!

1 comment:

  1. While there may be issues with the comparisons between blog clots and Covid deaths, anyone skeptical of lockdowns fails to recognize the simple principle of R(0) "R Naught" in the transmission of Covid, nay Viruses of any transmissible entity, including information and most importantly DisInformation.
    Start with Bardasi's "Network Science Chpater 9 http://www.networksciencebook.com/chapter/9
    Then read Rand's "Truth Decay"https://www.rand.org/research/projects/truth-decay.html to see how "all" viruses - biological ones and informational ones get transmitted and while being transmitted, adapt to "survive" through variations

    ReplyDelete

Please add your value with a comment