Thursday, April 8, 2021

When mysteries are progress


Got a mystery in your project?
Can't figure out what's happening, or
Can't find the root cause -- after following all the methodologies -- for what you measure or observe?

Perhaps you are making progress!
Stuff happens; don't deny; it's yours to figure out why
Once you do, you may have discovered something quite fundamental about the project outcomes 

There are lots of examples:
  • There is a lot of dark matter in the universe; why is there more dark matter than visible matter?
  • There are missing particles in the Standard Model of particle physics; where are they?
  • Why does the speed of light not conform to Newtonian physics (Einstein worked that out, fortunately)
  • Why does your bridge collapse after you built it with a lot of steel?
  • Why do team mates fly off the handle when you mention X or Y? (Note: no religion or politics in project teams)
 So, there are a lot of examples. What do you do about it?
  • Try Bayes methods of hypothesis testing ... make a prediction (perhaps, gasp!, a guess for lack of something better); test for results; change a parameter and look again. Repeat ....

  • Try models: why does the model work and the system doesn't? (NASA calls something like this 'model based system engineering -- MBSE')

  • Get out of the frame and look from a different vantage point. That's what Einstein did.

  • Try forensic engineering or investigation. This is micro-engineering at the nut and bolt level.

  • Change direction and do something entirely different (not retreat; just advance in a different direction)



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