Friday, December 11, 2015

Data splits 3-ways


Andrew Gelman has an interesting observation: Rather than using the median to split data into "above" and "below" the median, putting data into three buckets may often be more effective.

Why? For one thing, the real information may not be how close to the median you are, but are you in the tails? A three way split makes that identification easier (less thinking)

And, continuous data can simply be put in buckets. All those messy data points from continuous variables can just be reduced to +1 , 0, or -1.  How nice!



Of course, to project managers, the idea has been known for a long time: it's kind of like either being +/- one sigma from the mean, or your data points are in the upper or lower tail.

So, Andrew opines: For pure efficiency it’s still best to keep the continuous information, of course, but if you have the a goal of clarity in exposition and you are willing to dichotomize, I say: trichotomize instead.

And, there's this bit of wisdom: "[Andrew] suspects that part of the motivation for dichotomizing is that people like to think deterministically.

For example, instead of giving people a continuous [performance] score and recognizing that different people have different [outcomes] at different times, just set a hard threshold: then you can characterize people deterministically and not have to think so hard about uncertainty and variation.

As Howard Wainer might have said at some point or another: people will work really hard to avoid having to think."


Read in the library at Square Peg Consulting about these books I've written
Buy them at any online book retailer!
http://www.sqpegconsulting.com
Read my contribution to the Flashblog

Tuesday, December 8, 2015

Layers of redundancy



Over at HerdingCats, there's a posting about the various ways you can think about and employ redundancy in systems design.

As a former Director of System Engineering, I certainly lend my endorsement to what was written, reproduced here as wrought there. [Disclosure: I don't agree with some of the stabs at Agile, but I certainly would add a spear re "no estimates"]

Here's the opening proposition, as posed by HerdingCats:

Redundancy  provides resiliency to the system to withstand disruption within acceptable degradation parameters and to recover within an acceptable time and composite costs and risks


Here are the rules:
  • Absorption rule - is a buffering characteristic that prevents overload of the system. Redundancy can provide this protection.
  • Limit Degradation support rule - provide a lower limit to which the system can degrade before failing. This is he circuit breaker for your home. Also the circuit breaker for the stick exchange.
  • Margin Support Rule - margin is added to the system to protect from disruptions. This can be schedule margin, cost margin, technical performance margin, operational margin. Any kind of margin that allows the system to continue to operate properly inside the range of parameters.
  • Physical Redundancy rule - buy two in case one breaks .... Fault-Tolerant System Reliability in the Presence of Imperfect Diagnostic Coverage, describes how ... triple redundancy was protected through real-time fault detection and dynamic reconfiguration of the hardware components.
  • Functional Redundancy rule - is sometimes called design diversity and avoids the vulnerabilities of Physical Redundancy.
  • Layers of Defense rule - states that for a failure to occur a disturbance has to penetrate a series of layers simulate to layers of Swiss Cheese. The system has holes like the holes in Swiss Cheese, that allow the failure to penetrate to the next level, where they can be handled.



Available now! The second edition .........
Bookmark this on Delicious

Read in the library at Square Peg Consulting about these books I've written
Buy them at any online book retailer!
http://www.sqpegconsulting.com
Read my contribution to the Flashblog

Saturday, December 5, 2015

Admiral Rickover on "responsibility"


Rickover invented project management for the Navy -- or at least the nuclear project Navy. He said a lot of stuff, but this is one that catches your attention:
"Responsibility is a unique concept... You may share it with others, but your portion is not diminished. You may delegate it, but it is still with you... If responsibility is rightfully yours, no evasion, or ignorance or passing the blame can shift the burden to someone else. Unless you can point your finger at the man who is responsible when something goes wrong, then you have never had anyone really responsible"

Read in the library at Square Peg Consulting about these other books I've written
Buy them at any online book retailer!
http://www.sqpegconsulting.com
Read my contribution to the Flashblog

Wednesday, December 2, 2015

Grand strategy


Every enterprise engages in strategy.
  • It's a matter of routine to some: Driven by the calendar, it's now time to do the "strategic plan".
  • To others, it's another name for how to engage with risk -- a risk might be a tactical failure, but at the same time, it could be a strategic success: The other guy won today, but he killed himself doing it.
And, of course, there is always self-interest: To be accused of not thinking strategically is a definite career limiter.

But, is grand strategy an illusion? I think not! But, consider these pro-illusion ideas from a recent essay on just that point:*
"It makes sense to put stock in strategy if:
  • The [enterprise] has consistent preferences, if 
  • It can assess the costs and benefits of alternative courses of action (and make decisions more or less rationally), and if 
  • It has the capacity to follow through on its strategic choices.
But [perhaps] none of this is possible, and thus strategy is an illusion .....

In the complex and highly uncertain world of [big project and big enterprise] politics, it is all but impossible to identify the ideal strategy ahead of time. The [enterprise or project] lacks full knowledge about the threats it confronts, in part because [other businesses and markets] act [in private] and in part because their interests change over time. As a result, the consequences of [strategic] policy are consistently unpredictable.

The strategizing ritual contributes to a .... sense of insecurity. Psychological blinders, moreover, make strategizing still more difficult.
  • People suffer from all sorts of cognitive limitations that hinder decision-making—in particular, a tendency to rationalize. 
  • Instead of acting on the basis of ... beliefs, we revise our beliefs to make sense of our improvisations. 
  • We avoid identifying priorities and the tradeoffs among them.
  • Moreover, businesses are not unitary actors, and bureaucratic battles impede strategic planning and consistency.
This sounds like the "noestimates" version of "nostrategy": As a result, the consequences of [strategic] policy are consistently unpredictable.

I'm not buying the thesis that not thinking about a future that has a discriminating difference with the present is somehow a good thing. Just because -- the future is unpredictable with precision and there are unknowns and unknowables that will drive us off course -- is no reason not to tackle the hard stuff

*David M. Edelstein and Ronald R. Krebsein, writing in the Nov-Dec 2015 issue of Foreign Affairs

Read in the library at Square Peg Consulting about these books I've written
Buy them at any online book retailer!
http://www.sqpegconsulting.com
Read my contribution to the Flashblog

Sunday, November 29, 2015

PMP exam is changing in 2016


Change is in the air, or at least it will be in the air next year as the PMP® exam is changed. Haven't heard about this? There's a 15 minute webinar put together by PMI that explains things pretty well.

But, you can get a 2 minute digest in this article that picks up the main points, to wit:
  • 11 January 2016 is the last day to take the test under the current version 
  • 8 new tasks within several of the existing knowledge areas have been added to the exam content outline. 
  • There is a shift in the weighting of the questions that you’ll get in the exam


Available now! The second edition .........
Bookmark this on Delicious

Read in the library at Square Peg Consulting about these books I've written
Buy them at any online book retailer!
http://www.sqpegconsulting.com
Read my contribution to the Flashblog

Thursday, November 26, 2015

Most projects run on "little data"


"Big Data" is the meme du jour, but most projects run on "little data", the sort of data that fits into the constraints of spreadsheets like Excel. It's everyday stuff that drives estimates, scorecards, dashboards, task assignments, and all manner of project analytics.

So, assuming you using Excel as a spreadsheet for doing actual calculations and data entry, and not a row-column table version of Word, you will find that you to do some analytics and data analysis from time to time.

Pivot tables are one spreadsheet data tool, but that's not the discussion today. Today, it's filters, which is the Excel name for the process and tool, but which the database people -- familiar with SQL for row by column -- would call a query.

And so, how to do a filter in Excel, something practical for the project manager? There are youtube's galore on the subject, but here's a neat, step by step, illustrated process that goes from the simple to the advanced.

Just what the PMO need to get into the data business

Some other rules
Beyond what you will read in the linked article, there are a few data rules that will make life simpler
  • Every column should have a header or title that is unique, even if just column1, column2, etc
  • Only one data value in a cell. Thus, first and last names should be in separate columns; so also city and state. But maybe also captain and ship's names. This is called "normalizing" the data
  • Keep the static data in separate row/column areas from the data that changes. So, if a ship sails to San Francisco on a certain date, the ship's description goes in one area; the city description in another; but the city/date/ship is dynamic and belongs in a third area.
  • Don't put 'word processing' paragraphs or labels in the middle of the data. In other words, maintain the integrity of row by column
  • It's good to have at least one column that is guaranteed to be uniquely valued in each cell, like a row ID
  • If you can avoid using "spaces" in the data, that's good. It makes the query more sure. So, "column1" instead of "column 1"
 

Read in the library at Square Peg Consulting about these books I've written
Buy them at any online book retailer!
http://www.sqpegconsulting.com
Read my contribution to the Flashblog

Monday, November 23, 2015

I was right before I was wrong


"The point of an investigation is not to find where people went wrong; it is to understand why their assessments and actions made sense at the time."

"... made sense at the time" to whom?  The investigation might want to look at whether what went wrong should have ever made sense to anyone -- what were they thinking?! -- and why someone was allowed to think it ever made sense.

I have in mind the Challenger accident of the mid-space shuttle era. Should anyone have been allowed to think that the solid boosters were safe after overnight temperatures in the 'teens? In that case the mix of politics, management, and engineering proved deadly.



Just released! The second edition .........

Bookmark this on Delicious

Read in the library at Square Peg Consulting about these books I've written
Buy them at any online book retailer!
http://www.sqpegconsulting.com
Read my contribution to the Flashblog