Want to manage risks? Super! It's always a good idea.

Everybody starts with the traditional four steps:

- Identify the risks .... are you thinking strategically or tactically? The list is different for each
- Prioritize among risks .... some don't need to be managed
- Evaluate probability and impact
- Set up a risk response or mitigation

- It's rare, bordering on "never", that you would know -- or could evaluate -- "probability" in a quantitative sense. [High, low, medium is not quantitative]
- Why? Because it's unlikely you would have enough historical quantitative and calibrated data to form an estimate. (Actually, to form an estimate of a distribution from which a estimate of probability can be determined) Thus, you're likely guessing
**Time matters**, and time is not actually explicit in Step 3.*Most risks are not static or stationary. And, most assessments are not stationary. Your evaluation will change with circumstances and facts revealed.*It matters when you assess risks or have to deal with their possible impacts.

**Intervals and their timeliness**

- Substitute the concept of "confidence interval" for a specific probability: less than
**this**, greater than**that**; or contained within a range of**this**to**that**.(*) during which the confidence interval applies. After all, this*Explicitly state the time frame**your confidence it will rain today is a good deal different than your confidence it will rain this week, but the impact may be the same if you are doing project work in the weather.*

- Strictly speaking, if the actual shape of the confidence "curve" within the interval is important, then yes there is an issue
- But, if you are, as most of us are, approximating the interval with some end points that are
*"very likely to contain the real outcome"*then the shape of the curve is not so important. Thus: press on!

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