Showing posts with label Quotations. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Quotations. Show all posts

Saturday, March 8, 2025

Staff vs Line



No time for the staffers; no time for the talkers. "Action this day"!
"I preferred to deal with chiefs of organisations rather than counsellors. Everyone should do a good day’s work and be accountable for some definite task."

"It is easier to give directions than advice, and more agreeable to have the right to act, even in a limited sphere, than the privilege to talk at large"

Winston Churchill, WWII Memoirs



Like this blog? You'll like my books also! Buy them at any online book retailer!

Saturday, September 21, 2024

Einstein's methodology



"When I have one week to solve a seemingly impossible problem, I spend six days defining it, and then the solution becomes obvious."

Albert Einstein



Like this blog? You'll like my books also! Buy them at any online book retailer!

Friday, December 1, 2023

About thinking



The real problem is not whether machines think but whether men do.

B.F. Skinner



Like this blog? You'll like my books also! Buy them at any online book retailer!

Friday, September 16, 2022

Supremely unfortunate!



"The supreme misfortune is when theory outstrips performance"
Leonardo da Vinci

And then there's this: 

During the technical and political debates in the mid-1930's by the FCC with various engineers, consultants, and business leaders regarding the effect, or not, of sunspots on various frequency bands being considered for the fledgling FM broadcast industry, the FCC's 'sunspot' expert theorized all manner of problems.

But Edwin Armstrong, largely credited with the invention of FM as we know it today, disagreed strongly, citing all manner of empirical and practical experimentation and test operations, to say nothing of calculation errors and erroneous assumptions shown to be in the 'theory' of the FCC's expert.

But, to no avail; the FCC backed its expert.

Ten years later, after myriad sunspot eruptions, there was this exchange: 

Armstrong: "You were wrong?!"

FCC Expert: "Oh certainly. I think that can happen frequently to people who make predictions on the basis of partial information. It happens every day"



++++++++++
Quotations are from the book "The Network"
  Like this blog? You'll like my books also! Buy them at any online book retailer!

Thursday, September 8, 2022

Virtual is not face-face! Who knew?



" ....virtual collaboration is like evaporated milk with 60% of the water removed; safer; mostly up to the job, but a sterile version of face-to-face that leaves an unsatisfying aftertaste"

"Bartelby" columnist in the "Economist"

Our columnist goes on:

"There are downsides to being a clinically efficient worker. They include relinquishing the daily banter and complicity among colleagues..... Hyper efficiency and distance mean less opportunity for interpersonal tension but also less gratuitous job, which is hard to replicate on Zoom."

But then, on a business channel, I hear a start-up guy talking about developing a software application (alternative to Zoom, or Skype, or Webex) that has 'humanity built-in' 

"Humanity built in"! Perhaps, but let's wait and see ....



Like this blog? You'll like my books also! Buy them at any online book retailer!

Thursday, June 23, 2022

Measuring time



Daniel Miessler posted this bit of schedule data in a recent blog:
The difference between a million and a billion is counter-intuitively large.

As an example, a million seconds is 12 days, and a billion seconds is 

32 years.
I had to look it up to confirm. That's bonkers.


Like this blog? You'll like my books also! Buy them at any online book retailer!

Sunday, April 10, 2022

From the desk of Nasim Taleb



“The three most harmful addictions are heroin, carbohydrates, and a monthly salary.” Nasim Taleb


Like this blog? You'll like my books also! Buy them at any online book retailer!

Wednesday, July 7, 2021

What is boldness?



"About boldness: Some might say “impulsiveness,” yet what is boldness but impulse leavened by calculation?

Daniel Allen Butler

Calculation? Where does that come from?
Experience is where it comes from. 

And what can we say about experience?

Steve Jobs would say it's one of the two coins that we get paid: One is cash, and the other is experience.
Others say it's the accumulated wisdom of all your encounters, good and bad

So, can you be bold without experience to base the calculation?
Yes, but then you are going by the "book" (others experience), or guessing or hoping or, in the worst case: foolish!




Buy them at any online book retailer!

Saturday, February 20, 2021

Appearances matter


Appearances matter
You've heard the expression: 'dress for success'
Well, how about this tale:
"This asteroid (B-612) has only been seen once through a telescope. That was by a Turkish astronomer in 1909. On making his discovery, the astronomer had presented it to the International Astronomical Congress, in a great demonstration. But he was in Turkish costume, and so nobody would believe what he said....

Fortunately, however, for the reputation of Asteroid B-612, a Turkish dictator [Kemel Ataturk] made a law that his subjects, on pain of death, should change to European costume.

So, in 1920, the astronomer gave his demonstration all over again, dressed in impressive style and elegance. And this time, everybody accepted his report"

Quoted by Niall Ferguson in "Civilization"





Buy them at any online book retailer!

Saturday, October 10, 2020

Be Bold; be brave; be calculating



I would hardly think today of making my first flight on a strange machine in a 27-mile wind . . .

I look with amazement upon our audacity in attempting flights with a new and untried machine under such circumstances.

Yet faith in our calculations and the design of the first machine, based upon our tables of air pressures, secured by months of careful laboratory work, and confidence in our system of control … had convinced us that the machine was capable of lifting and maintaining itself in the air

— Orville Wright, from “How We Made the First Flight” (*)

I hope you were able to read the last sentence, as long as it is -- my editor would have been apocalyptic!

So, what have we got here with O.Wright's statement that can inform project management?

He begins with audacity! Audacity: "a willingness to take bold risks"
To be audacious! Audacity is a risk attitude that is at first personal, but then infects the whole project culture.

But not recklessly bold risks. Audacious is one thing; willful recklessness is entirely different.

Then comes the skill and science

So then comes the science, the engineering, and the risk management to leaven the audacity. Afterall, as we learn from author Jo Nesbo, "Someone will no doubt come up with an opinion with the benefit of hindsight, but we prefer to be wise in foresight".

In this case, wisdom in foresight requires:

  • Calculations and tables of metrics
  • Careful laboratory work
  • Confidence in the system engineering
  • Measurable goal: capable of lifting maintaining itself in air

And what does the world get with this elixir of bold thinking, careful consideration of risk, and skill-and-science?

  • Heavy machines that fly
  • Semiconductors of near atomic size
  • Electric, hydrogen, and possibly others that upend the transportation industry
  • Social media
  • Private space travel
  • And all the other stuff yet to be envisioned!


----------
(*) Quotation courtesy of Herding Cats




 



Buy them at any online book retailer!

Sunday, October 4, 2020

About compartments


It's how we all get along, especially in the close quarters of a project team -- even if virtual:
"A well-ordered life has compartments. People that have secrets know that other people have secrets. That's how we all get along
Dialogue from "The Paladin" by David Ignatius

 

Of course, in the pristine description of project methodologies in the PMBOK® and elsewhere, projects are an open book. The project pyramid is transparent from top to bottom; information is readily available.

Real projects are compartmented
I should say that a well-ordered project is strategically transparent but tactically compartmented. Everyone should know and internalize the major mission elements, but tactically, there is value in limitations. 

Effective communication emulates life in a lot of ways, and one of those ways is to compartment information. Immediately, the N-squared number of communication channels between N sources is reduced exponentially.  From that one action, communication quality goes up:

  • Fewer rumors, more authoritative information
  • Less noise, greater signal

And, compartmentation is helpful when you need to put space between big egos; separate clashing personalities, and limit people interactions. It's how we all get along.

But also, compartmentation is a tool for limiting information according to sensitivity, proprietary protections, and utility according to function. Sometimes, it's just better to know less, at least with respect to tactical detail.

And, compartments reduce risk.
How so?
In the sailboat business, we speak of "rip stops" in sails. Sails are never one large sheet; they are always compartmented by seams. If a problem arises in one part of the sail, the "rip stop" seam contains the problem, prevents its spread, and usually leaves a lot of the sail useful for powering the boat.

The same goes for a project: compartments are "rip stops". A problem in one aspect of the project is contained, but the rest of the project goes forward.

And, I might add: In system engineering, we build with subsystems linked by carefully constructed interfaces. The interface provides "loose coupling" that helps contain and compartmentalize any issue in one subsystem.

The architecture of project methods
When developing the architecture of your project methodologies, think of what it takes to have a well-ordered project





Buy them at any online book retailer!

Tuesday, September 15, 2020

Projecting the past



Some people live in fear because they project the past into the future
Anonymous

Now, to put that in project terms, some PM's may see fear in the future because they project (extend) troublesome project history into the future. The poster child for this are the two common cost metrics:
  • What is it going to take to finish this thing? and
  • What is going to cost when it's all done?
Your project analyst may know them as:
  • "estimate to complete ETC"
  • "estimate at completion EAC"
How are these calculated?
Two common methods, and each will give a different answer:
  1. First method: From cost history, extend (that is, project) the historic trend into the future
  2. Second method: Take cost history in account, but simply re-estimate the remaining work
Both methods have their fear factors.

Trend line
Simply projecting .. or extending .. a trend line assumes that the future is some predictable function of the past. If this is true, then such a "predictable function" can be described with an algorithm more or less of this form: Y = aX + b
  • Where Y is some future cost figure, X is some past cost figure, and "a" is the velocity or slope with which X marches toward Y.  And "b" is some past sunk cost that predates X; "b" is often zero. (*)
But fear not! If you don't like Y as an outcome, then don't accept "a" as a given for the future. To wit: force a discontinuity in what is otherwise smooth trend line, making a break between the trend of the past and the direction of the future.

Discontinuous trend
You deal with fear by forcing a discontinuity in the trend line.
“The best way to predict the future is to to create it.”
A. Lincoln

To wit: "a" before you act becomes "A" after you act.

What to do to make "A" different from "a":
  • The PM can reallocate resources; retrain existing resources; evaluate remaining scope differently; change the environment; bring in different relationships among users, sponsors, and developers; in short: the PM can markedly make the future look different from the past, nullifying the trend line.
Simply estimate
Now, having set new conditions in place at the discontinuity, estimate the new baseline. The trend will probably be an equation of this form: y = Ax + B, where:
  • y is the new target, replacing the historic Y
  • A is the new velocity, replacing a
  • x replaces X
  • B is the sunk cost of the history. B = aX + b at the point of discontinuity.

All clear? Excellent!

------------------------
For those with an understanding of algebra, it's necessary to keep everything dimensionally correct. Thus, if Y is dimensioned in dollars, then so must be aX and b. X is dollars, so that requires that "a" be dimensioned as dollars per dollars, or dollars/dollars. Consequently, "a" is an expression of efficiency, meaning so many dollars of cost per so many dollars of budget.




Buy them at any online book retailer!

Thursday, July 2, 2020

Good writing, and a well-chosen word


What does one learn when reading great ..... writings? That well-chosen words are the way by which past deeds acquire meaning and future deeds acquire purpose.

“The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here,” are the only false notes in the Gettysburg Address. The Battle of Gettysburg is etched in national memory less for its military significance than because Lincoln reinvented the goals of the Civil War in that speech — and, in doing so, reimagined the possibilities .....

[Great] writing doesn’t just provide meaning and purpose. It also offers determination, hope and instruction.
Bret Stephens
Now, I think it's reasonable to say that most writing coming forth from the PMO doesn't rise to the level of the Gettysburg Address in eloquence or conciseness, or engender the profound effect the Address has had on generations since.

Nonetheless, if the bar is more reasonably set at the level of "good writing" --- clear, concise, unambiguous, and purposeful --- then we should take to heart in all project communications that words do matter, and that choosing the right words should not be a task taken lightly.

I've often said that "good writing is not written, it is re-written", meaning: the first draft is just that: a draft. The published version is -- or should be -- more likely the draft re-written. [See: take a moment before you send that text or email]

But the point here is not so much to lecture about writing well; rather it is to make the point that in executing the first job of the PMO --- to communicate -- the PM should bear in mind the three big steps:
  1. Tell them what you are going tell them
  2. Tell them (enter: a well-chosen word)
  3. Tell them what you told them
Said another way:
  1. Establish the background, explain how the past got us here
  2. Lay out the task ahead
  3. Connect the dots to future goals
 "That well-chosen words are the way by which past deeds acquire meaning and future deeds acquire purpose"  ..... Well said!




Buy them at any online book retailer!

Saturday, June 20, 2020

A leadership personality


Exasperating, but generally forgiven. A combination of charm, audacity, imagination, optimism, and energy
Historian Arthur Schlesinger describing William Donovan, the leader of the clandestine spy agency, OSS, in WW II

And, to put a point on it, Donovan was considered a mediocre administrator and manager.

Noteworthy: Donovan was awarded the Congressional Medal of Honor for service in WW I, and then was a successful Wall Street attorney, politically a Republican, who served FDR, a Democrat, throughout the war.

 


Buy them at any online book retailer!

Wednesday, June 17, 2020

About organization


"Organization is the enemy of improvisation
It is a long jump from knowing to doing
Committees take the punch out ...."

Lord Beaverbook, Minister of Aircraft Production for Britain in WW II

So, about "organization" Max Beaverbrook is really speaking of bureaucracy that is encumbered by rules designed to put accountability with the institution rather than the individual (just following the rules ....) and thereby contain or restrain those that would go outside the rules.

But wait!

Along comes an emergency and the rules go out the window. Now, risk-taking and entrepreneurship are in, and the organizational pyramid is a shambles. Ad hoc relationship meshes form that connect all the right people, regardless of where they ordinarily fit in the structure.

It's no small matter how flat and responsive an organization can get when the circumstances are dire.
One wonders why it takes an emergency .....




Buy them at any online book retailer!

Monday, April 27, 2020

About Exponentials



The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function
- Albert A. Bartlett, The Essential Exponential! For the Future of Our Planet
Sounds profound; what does it mean to the PMO?

Consider communications:
the number of ways that N people (or systems or interfaces) can communicate is N*(N - 1), which for large N is approximately N-squared (an exponential)

Consider project finance:
The present value of future benefits of a project are discounted, exponentially, by the expected risk

Consider the so-called "bell curve" of natural clustering around the mean
The actual formula for the curve is complex, but it's core is the the 'natural number 'e'' raised to an exponential that involves the mean and standard deviation

Consider the decay of natural materials
This also is exponential

Consider the arrival rate of independent actors (events)
Again, an exponential, and an important concept in certain elements of risk management. 

It never ends!
Exponential increases, where the exponent is positive, may work to your advantage, but when the exponent is negative, the phenomenon is decreasing exponentially. Is this good for your project?
Perhaps, but, not so fast!
If the exponent is less than -1, there is a great flattening of the tail, to the point that the thing never ends! Yikes, will this ever be done? (*)

-----------------
If you look up Bartlett's book, you'll find most of the chapters are available free in pdf format
Shout-out to herdingcats for the quotation

(*) Consider the natural number 'e' with exponents 0, 1, -1, -0.1, -0.001, respectively
The values, corresponding, are: 1.0, 2.7 ascending with positive exponent, then descending with negative exponents, respectively: 0.37, 0.9, 0.99, approaching but never reaching 1.0




Buy them at any online book retailer!

Saturday, March 28, 2020

Commitment


"Whither thou goest, I will go; and where thou lodgest, I will lodge: thy people shall be my people, and thy God my God. Even to the end"
Harry Hopkins to Winston Churchill, February, 1941


Buy them at any online book retailer!

Wednesday, March 25, 2020

Who said 'evidence'?



Did you see this witicism at herdingcats?
A skeptic will question claims, then embrace the evidence. A denier will question claims, then reject the evidence. - Neil deGrase Tyson

Think of this whenever there is a conjecture that has no testable evidence of the claim. And think ever more when those making the conjectured claim refuse to provide evidence. When that is the case, it is appropriate to ignore the conjecture all together 
 
And, of course, think of this when office or business politics is made superior to evidence. Particularly the collision of politics and risk management


Buy them at any online book retailer!

Tuesday, March 10, 2020

About character and power


Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man’s character, give him power. — Abraham Lincoln
And, thanks to Herdingcats for showing me this quote.

So, tough guys (gender neutral here) don't always have vision ... everything tactical ... but we know that from too many PMOs that seem shortsighted;

And and tough guys don't always use power effectively ... we see PMOs squandering opportunity and resources for little gain, and

Most worst of all, the timeless quote comes to mind:
Power corrupts, but absolute power corrupts absolutely
We see PMOs riding roughshod over rules, skating too close to the edge, what General Michael Hayden has characterized as playing on the white chalk.

In my experience, I've seen corrupt practices in government contracting which landed some PMO "tough guys" in jail with big fines.

When you experience a person handling adversity with stand-up character, you know you are in the presence of a winner!


Buy them at any online book retailer!

Sunday, November 24, 2019

About 'positive'


Keep your thoughts positive
because your thoughts
become your words

Keep your words positive
because your words
become your behavior

Keep your behavior positive
because your behavior
becomes your habits

Keep your habits positive
because your habits
become your values

Keep your values positive
because your values
become your destiny

--Mahatma Gandhi


Buy them at any online book retailer!