Visual language

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Need to tell a story?

• Proposal
• Message
• ESL audience

Then this Khan Academy series on visual language is a place to start.
There's power in framing, stretching, shaping .... not to mention color, contrast, shading.

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Creative constraints

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Most of us are familiar with the Theory of Constraints as postulated by Eliyahu Goldratt in his famous book: "The Goal".  In ToC, constraints are not good; they're the bad guy

Now, comes along a TED talk that sets up the opposite proposition: Constraints are 'somewhat' the good guy because they frame the issue, estabish a target, and get us beyond "writer's block".

Take a look:
"The power of creative constraints"

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Analyze, optimize, etc

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According to Tom Friedman, author of "The World is Flat, "we’re in the middle of a change in the “climate” of technology."

And .... We’re moving into a world where machines and software can  

• analyze (see patterns that were always hidden before);  
• optimize (tell a plane which altitude to fly each mile to get the best fuel efficiency); 
• prophesize (tell you when your elevator will break and fix it before it does);  
• customize (tailor any product or service for you alone) and  
• digitize and automate just about any job.

This is transforming every industry.

Could it happen to the PM job jar? Perhaps.

Certainly the challenge is to maintain value-add skills and knowledge that are not rules-based. The more your job has elements of randomness, the safer you are

Random is your friend!

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Average is not always the answer

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Doesn't all data sets have an average?
Actually, not

• Yes, data taken from a common distribution along a common scale  has a parametric value* that emerges from a long run of repetitions
  
  The repetition-weighted sum we commonly call the average, even if it's not the most frequent outcome, and even if it's not an allowable outcome (the average of integers is often not an integrer, as the average value of the roll of one die is 3.5)
• Data that cluster's about a central value always has an average. This clustering idea we call the "central limit theorem"

Here's a couple of issues

• No, not every data set we run across in PM are from a common distribution, or has a common scale, and so the concept of average doesn't apply. Example: big projects and little projects don't have a common scale: big numbers for the former; small numbers for the latter
• Not every data set clusters

Three ideas you may not have thought about:

1. Clustering: When there's clustering, there will be an average. Usually, data taken from a common scale clusters You can't average feet and inches; nor apples and oranges. Common scale required!
2. Not clustering: Data taken from many different scales doen't cluster, but rather follows a "power law". This gives rise to the so called "80/20" rule and other other ideas commonly shown on a Pareto Chart of descending values... so, no cluster effect, and NO AVERAGE.
   
   Almost all issues dealing with money is power law stuff. There's just no meaningful average of big projects (on one scale) with little projects (on another scale). The 80/20 rule is more the way to look at it since a Pareto Chart is scale-free!
3. Independent events: Something happens; when will it happen again? You're doing something; when will it be finished? This isn't clustering, and it's not 80/20 stuff. You read this page; when will you read it again? Or, how long will it take you to finish reading?
   
   This leads to the so-called "additive rule": just add a constant to what you know to get the next outcome. Where does the constant come from? You estimate it! This leads to: "just give me five more minutes to get this done" sort of thing.
   
   Of course, there's no average because there's no common scale because everything is independent, memory-less (the present does not depend on the past, though the past may figure into your experience to give an estimate of the constant).

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* Parametric values, like average, are calculated; often they are not observed or even reliazable in the data set

This discussion adapted from the chapter on Bayes Rule in "Algorithms to Live By" by Christia and Griffiths

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The Lord Beaverbrook model

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Lord Beaverbrook, a genious in getting things done with big bureaucracy under the extreme pressure of war, had this philosophy

Organization is the enemy of improvisation
It is a long jump from knowing to doing
Committees take the punch out of .....  [fill in the blank]

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Lord Beaverbrook was a close advisor and confidant of Winston Churchill during WW II. His genius: making processes work. His first job was making the production of aircraft stupendous enough to win the "Battle of Britain" in the air in 1940.

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Everyone estimates!

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We all make estimates; and we all make estimates all the time.

• When I make the 20 mile trip each Tuesday to a client site, I estimate adjustments to a baseline based on weather and road construction and if I know about an accident.

Really, no one sets out to do anything meaningful without some estimate in mind re time, or cost, or risk; usually we can also notionally estimate the scope.

So, now we hear from renown Agilist Mike Cohn, author of "Agile Estimating and Planning", about his views estimating new scope:

Rule 1: Estimating is not a vote. Well, actually, there's a lot of voting in estimating as a group agrees on a consensus, so I don't agree with Mike on this one, but he's welcome to his idea.
Rule 2: Most estimating is relative and so most people know notionally whether or not some is bigger or smaller; more or less complex, etc than an understood baseline
Rule 3: Everyone participates; even if you don't know what you're talking about. Seems curious, but Mike's idea is that most estimating is relative (see above), so even the uninformed can make some contribution to the discussion. My take: perhaps, but the uninformed often don't have "permission" to be in the decision making.

Anyway, to end with the beginning in mind: We all make estimates; and we all make estimates all the time.

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Auteur model of innovation

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Good grief!  Yet another model to learn about.  Now we hear about the auteur model of innovation, an idea coined by John Kao, an innovation guru.

Auteur: an innovator that has a distinctly personal style and maintains artistic control over all design and production aspects of his/her work [a definition adapted for projects from the film industry where the auteur model has been practiced for many years].

Sounds a bit autocratic!  Whatever happened to the empowered team and even more broadly: the wisdom of the crowds?  What happened to the embedded customer model--think: SCRUM -- and other customer-intimacy models like the market leader ideas of Treacy and Wiersema? 

Indeed! where is system engineering in this model?
In our world, the project world, and especially the technology project world where anyone can have an idea, the auteur model is a rare occurrence; a successful implementation, sustained over time, is even more rare.But take a look at the poster child for the auteur model:  today that is Apple.

Without its innovative leader, the company foundered; with its bold visionary, the company prospered. And, in a decidedly not-agile way of doing things, it is said Apple never asks its customers anything.  They sure did not ask about a name for the iPad!
 
Obviously, the dependency on one personality is Risk 1 for this model -- both an upside opportunity and a downside risk.  For the successful, it's evident opportunity triumphs! Obviously, Tim Cook is having a good run post Steve Jobs; but I think everyone would agree Jobs set the bar.But it's evident that Apple, and others with this model, go a step or two further.

• Step 1: make  your own market where one didn't exist;
• Step 2: exploit that market with the simplest possible product that has the highest possible wow! factor. 
• And, step 3: guard the gate!  Be selective about letting others ride the coattails of your own auteurist [is that a word?]

Mr Kao writes: "Mr. Jobs is undeniably a gifted marketer and showman, but he is also a skilled listener to the technology. He calls this “tracking vectors in technology over time,” to judge when an intriguing innovation is ready for the marketplace.

Skilled listener?  Perhaps so.  One of the mantra's of the agile movement today is to be value on simplicity.  Apple has certainly gotten that.   Jobs told us that the floppy was dead 18mos before it was indeed dead; and now Cook has done away with the headphone jack (gasp!)

  The best possible example of the wisdom of simplicity.  Not that things Apple builds are simple; they are simply minimally complex!

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